Vigilar Group has published an independent report on the analysis of security risks related to the Milan–Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games.
This is not a “decision-making” document and it has no accusatory purpose: it does not assign responsibility, does not express judgments on individual organizations, and does not replace the work of the competent authorities. Rather, it represents a technical contribution: a structured reading of potential critical issues, aimed at understanding where the system may become vulnerable and under which conditions risks tend to accumulate.
The report is based on a guiding principle:
“Risk is not so much determined by the likelihood of an exceptional attack, but by the accumulation of ordinary vulnerabilities within an extraordinary event, and by the ability to mitigate them.”
A study grounded in open-source intelligence and structured analysis
The report was developed by integrating institutional sources, technical documentation, public data and information, contextual analysis, and comparison with international cases.
The objective is not to “predict” what will happen, but rather to build plausible scenarios and identify the factors that, historically and operationally, increase risk in a major event: clarity of the decision-making chain, operational continuity, flow management, coordination capacity, and the quality of communication under conditions of pressure.
Cosa emerge in sintesi: rischio cumulativo e fragilità interdipendenti
The report’s main finding is that the overall risk profile is not explained by a single dominant threat, but rather by the possibility that multiple “ordinary” critical issues may occur simultaneously, generating cascading effects. In an event with high international visibility, even non-exceptional phenomena — logistical congestion, service disruptions, weather events, information anomalies, local incidents — can become significant if they occur at the same time and within the same operational perimeter.
Milan–Cortina 2026 also presents a distinctive feature: the geographical dispersion of venues, spanning urban centers and Alpine locations, with distributed logistical corridors and mobility hubs. This configuration increases the surface of exposure and makes it more complex to maintain uniform standards, timelines, and coordination, particularly during peak phases.
Areas analyzed
Il report sviluppa l’analisi su più dimensioni, perché l’evento non è “un luogo”, ma un ecosistema. Tra i principali ambiti:
- Physical security and flow management (venues, access control, safety, congestion, alpine environments)
- Mobility hubs and transport security, with particular attention to operational continuity and “cascading” effects on the event system
- Airport security, considered a critical element in the presence of traffic increases and stress on screening and control processes
- Cybersecurity and disinformation, as risks capable of generating operational and reputational impacts (disruptions, ransomware, information manipulation campaigns)
- Terrorism, extremism, and online radicalization, within the framework of low-probability but high-impact risk, with attention to opportunistic dynamics and potential “soft” targets
- Petty crime and predatory phenomena, with a focus on high-flow density areas and on the issue of perceived security
- Youth gangs and urban conflict, addressed as contextual indicators and a potential source of local pressure
- Hidden criminal activity and collateral risks, including potential opportunistic increases in drug trafficking and the exploitation of prostitution in high-attractiveness areas
- Governance and economic-organizational factors, examined in terms of their impact on the ability to mitigate critical issues (timelines, quality, redundancy, management of unforeseen events)
Una logica di scenario: la capacità di mitigare fa la differenza
The report does not describe a “foretold collapse,” but neither does it characterize the risk as “low.” The analysis places the overall risk profile in a medium–high range and emphasizes a key operational point: the decisive factor is the ability to mitigate the accumulation of ordinary vulnerabilities as pressure increases.
In concreto: coordinamento tra attori, chiarezza della catena decisionale, processi ridondanti dove necessario, continuità dei servizi essenziali, comunicazione efficace e gestione rapida dei segnali di stress, prima che diventino cumulativi.
A chi è utile
The document is designed for professional use: public and private stakeholders, supply-chain operators, infrastructure entities, and companies managing flows, security, services, compliance, and reputation. It is structured to allow for rapid reading through an Executive Summary, as well as in-depth analysis by thematic area.
The report is available for download here
Alternatively, you can view a mini-site presenting the key findings from the report here.
For media inquiries or technical insights: info@vigilargroup.com
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